Month Two: Countdown to Iraq Internal Withdrawal
Last month I said that by August 2007 we need to have our troops withdrawn on to bases in Iraq. One question raised by this idea is: What is the transition plan to pull that off? The answer is that we have spent years training the Iraqi forces, and it just hasn’t gone that well overall. It is time to move toward a sink or swim policy. We have to take some risks at this point. And we need to get our troops out of harm’s way.
If we think that we can wait to cleanly hand over each province to the Iraqi central government, we are kidding ourselves. They are going to do a really erratic job for years to come. Some places will not be secured well at all. Some will be like the wild west gone mad with various insane factions killing each other and civilians. But we can’t fix this perhaps even if we stay for another decade and let another 10,000 of our soldiers be killed.
Does withdrawing on to bases by August 11, 2007 seem fairly abitrary? Well, yes. Like I said, there can be no clean hand-off plan. Want to pick another arbitrary date? Perhaps August 2009. Well that just means another two years of more dead American soldiers.
We just have to pull the plug and throw the hot potato over the wall to the Iraqis themselves. Our troops can consolidate and withdraw on to a few large bases in Iraq to provide a significant supporting role - unlike in Vietnam where we just walked away from any supporting role. Nearly all of the ground patrols and ground fighting will be in Iraqi hands (our troops will only go after high-value Al Qaeda targets).
With no traditions of freedom and democracy and civil rights in Iraq, it is unrealistic to expect them to suddenly act how westerners act when on their best behavior. Consider this:
BAQUBA, Iraq — It did not take long for Col. Brian D. Jones to begin to have doubts about the new Iraqi commander.
At a city council meeting last month, the police chief of Abu Sayda in Diyala Province, center, gave American military officers a list of people said to be troublemakers who were involved in sectarian violence. The list was compiled by the city’s Shiite leaders. Sunni leaders did not take part in the meeting.
The commander, Brig. Gen. Shakir Hulail Hussein al-Kaabi, was chosen this summer by the Shiite-led government in Baghdad to lead the Iraqi Army’s Fifth Division in Diyala Province. Within weeks, General Shakir went to Colonel Jones with a roster of people he wanted to arrest.
On the list were the names of nearly every Sunni Arab sheik and political leader whom American officers had identified as crucial allies in their quest to persuade Sunnis to embrace the political process and turn against the powerful Sunni insurgent groups here.
“Where’s the evidence?” Colonel Jones demanded of General Shakir. “Where’s the proof? What makes us suspect these guys? None of that stuff exists.”
To that, Colonel Jones recalled, the Iraqi commander replied simply, “I got this from Baghdad.”
George W. Bush was right before the 9/11 attacks when he used to say that in general nation-building is something to be avoided.
November 12th, 2006 at 7:49 pm
[...] « Month Two: Countdown to Iraq Internal Withdrawal ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ [...]
November 13th, 2006 at 10:02 pm
[...] Just to clarify. I have been saying that the US should do an internal withdrawal on to bases in Iraq. Here is the impact of this proposal: 1) NoSpeedBumps clearly rules US foreign policies and Congress and the President will soon implement this idea. [...]
November 14th, 2006 at 11:51 am
Based on handover rate I think you are about 6-12 months ahead of the game. Politically we have to have started this move by the end of primary season. As long as we are fighting Al Quaeda guys, then its worth the trade off, when we are merely supporting one side of the sectarian fight, better to let a little internal blood letting go on.
One thing we need to do is crack down on the borders, as we let the Iraqis do for themselves, let’s make sure its really the Iraqis, and not the Syrians or Iranians.
November 15th, 2006 at 12:19 am
[...] Expect to hear more along this line of thinking. An internal withdrawal is the logical next step. [...]
November 15th, 2006 at 12:34 am
Brendan,
I heard a guy from the NY Times on NPR tonight saying that one of the problems with never having enough troops is that we have never been able to adequately guard the borders. So I doubt if we could it now either.
Regarding waiting 6-12 more months, I would be okay with that if that helped to calm things down in Iraq. But things aren’t likely to change. Overall, things have been getting worse, not better. So why wait? More Americans will get killed.
November 20th, 2006 at 4:19 pm
Dan,
I’m referring to the rate provinces in Iraq have been handed over. I’m not saying slow things down, I just think it will take 6-12 more months to cycle through all the provinces. I’m skeptical that we can’t properly patrol and control the borders. We effectively controlled Sadam’s internal border between “Baathist Iraq” and “Kurdistan” allowing the Kurds to get setup. Now I’m supposed to believe the NY Times that we can’t secure Iran’s and Syria’s borders? At a minimum we should be patrolling Iran borders, the flow of evil from Iran is towards the West. This would have tactical and strategic benefits, both operationally and on the intelligence front.
-Brendan
November 30th, 2006 at 1:36 am
[...] For over a year now at NoSpeedBumps I have been saying that what needs to be done in Iraq is to move toward an internal withdrawal of US forces on to bases within Iraq. I even started a monthly countdown. Not that these guys read my blog, but it looks like this a central piece of the James Baker study group’s recommendation: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Iraq Study Group has decided to recommend the U.S. military transition from a combat to a support role in Iraq roughly over the next year, a source familiar with the panel’s deliberations said on Wednesday. [...]
December 5th, 2006 at 10:47 pm
[...] Instapundit is asking for ideas (here) from the blogosphere for the next steps in Iraq. The first responses are here. At NoSpeedBumps, the proposal for what to do next has been the same for over a year: We need to begin an Internal Withdrawal on to large bases in Iraq. [...]
January 10th, 2007 at 10:15 pm
[...] So the real question, at least to me, is how do you transition security to Iraqis and then withdraw our forces on to bases where they will play an important supporting role? I have been saying that we just need to start winding down US ground patrols and hand things over to Iraqis by Aug of 2007. But I will give President Bush and his advisors the benefit of the doubt and give this surge strategy a chance assuming that it is temporary (which he was unclear about). So perhaps the internal withdrawal is pushed out until 2008. [...]
September 10th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
[...] So I am not buying General Petraeus’s plan. As we cut back ground operations, violence is going to increase - whether we do it over the next year or over the next 2 1/2 years. So why drag it out while more Americans get killed, we spend billions more, and our military is further run down? As I wrote last November: If we think that we can wait to cleanly hand over each province to the Iraqi central government, we are kidding ourselves. They are going to do a really erratic job for years to come. Some places will not be secured well at all. Some will be like the wild west gone mad with various insane factions killing each other and civilians. But we can’t fix this perhaps even if we stay for another decade and let another 10,000 of our soldiers be killed. [...]